🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.